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Why Kim took that midnight train to China
By Martin Nesirky:
http://www.kuwaittimes.net/today/analysis_s2.php
It is a long way to go to dine on duck. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have visited Beijing this week to discuss his nuclear and economic plans-and savour Beijing\'s roasted delicacy-but political analysts say a deeper and potentially troubling insecurity prompted him to take the midnight train to China.
\"It\'s more than the nuclear crisis,\" said one Western diplomat. \"That\'s number two on his list.\" Few doubt Kim controls the communist system he inherited from his father, Kim Il-sung, a decade ago.
Few doubt he keeps the powerful military onside and calls the shots in Pyongyang\'s standoff with the United States over its nuclear arms ambitions.
But the diplomat and other analysts who monitor North Korea said Kim had good reason to seek backing from China under new President Hu Jintao and other younger leaders who provide aid to his creaking economy and, so far at least, support for his rule.
Kim appears to have ditched at least two officials recently, apparently to warn others not to cramp his style, and has yet to win over some in his elite to economic reforms, they said.
This suggests, they said, Kim may well be feeling defensive or uneasy, although not necessarily at grave political risk.
\"This is a critical moment for Kim Jong-il,\" said North Korea expert Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute near Seoul. \"He is preoccupied with introducing more economic reforms and trying to solve the nuclear issue to stabilise the situation-and strengthen his legitimacy.\"
The analysts said Kim was unlikely to have been given a full stamp of approval, despite the bearhugs and blandishments.
Far more likely were Chinese appeals to push ahead with reforms and come clean on his hidden nuclear programmes, notably the highly enriched uranium project he still denies he has.
\"Kim may not have been taken to the woodshed, but it was certainly explained to him that China is not happy,\" Ralph Cossa, head of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank in Hawaii, told reporters in Singapore.
One South Korean newspaper, Munhwa Ilbo, said Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Kim to feel the \"winds of capitalism\" in the rival South for himself.
Sung-yoon Lee of Tufts University in the United States said while pressure was probably applied, Kim was still in favour.
\"Short of an imminent war on the Korean peninsula, the Chinese certainly would not be prone to seeking a collapse of North Korea,\" Lee said.
China views North Korea as a security buffer, Cossa said. While nothing can be ruled out, a collapse or coup are not generally expected in North Korea because of its rigid system.
By comparison Cold War \"Albania looked like San Francisco in the heyday of flower power\", one analyst said. \"I think there is already a power struggle but in a diluted sense,\" said the analyst, who monitors North Korea and asked not to be identified.
\"In other words some people are annoyed about the reforms. There are differing views, harsh discussions.
A power struggle way down the ladder of severity, shall we say.\" He and other political analysts said Kim\'s reshuffle was a warning he wants his reforms, started in July 2002, to take root rather than a sign of a succession crisis in the making.
First to go was Jang Song-taek, Kim\'s brother- in-law and arguably the second-most powerful man in the ruling party structure, they said.
Jang may even have been replaced by one of Kim\'s sons, Kim Jung-woon, but diplomats and officials in the South have not been able to confirm what would be a highly significant power shift.
\"Given the historical status Jang appeared to have, he can\'t be happy about it,\" said the analyst. \"These things do not happen by accident or for no reason.
It is clearly significant. Others noted Jang\'s move could be temporary and an attempt to strengthen reforms rather than thwart a potential rival.
\"He wants to give more autonomy to the prime minister,\" said Choi Jin-wook of the state-affiliated Korea Institute for National Unification, referring to Kim. \"He wants to give him (Jang) and other people a warning signal not to interfere in the economic matters of the cabinet.\"
Last September, the North named a little-known chemical industry minister, Pak Pong-ju, as premier and issued a cabinet list with seven other new appointments.
South Korean experts saw the reshuffle as consolidating economic power in the premiership.
Next to go this time round was the foreign trade minister, Ri Kyang-gun, the South\'s Unification Ministry said. He was replaced by trade diplomat Lim Kyung-man.
It was not clear why Ri went, but diplomats said his removal might not be part of a pattern.
Aidan Foster-Carter, a North Korea specialist at Britain\'s Leeds University, said there was no clear answer to the broader question of who might replace the 62-year-old Kim, in contrast to the publicly smooth and long- planned transition from his father.
\"If Kim Jong-il has a heart attack tomorrow, all hell may break loose,\" he said. \"Three sons, two stepbrothers and lord knows who else may duke it out.\" China might favour someone more pliant on reform, he said.
Cossa took a similar view, saying Kim had to show China he could change or face the risk Beijing would favour someone who could.
\"I don\'t know which conclusion the Chinese will reach,\" he said. \"But if I was North Korea, when I got into bed with China I\'d sleep with one eye open.\"
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